“The polls called the referendum wrong” is a common misapprehension. In fact, while they were clearly wrong in the past two general elections, opinion polls were mostly right – at least within a margin of error – all the way through the 2016 referendum campaign. Although most commentators chose to interpret the polls through the prism of their own confirmation bias (what their friends thought would happen), and therefore assumed remain would walk it, the eventual close-run win for leave was fairly well predicted.
Latest polling suggests that remain has improved its showing a little – although the net result is still “neck and neck”, too close to call. The problem with most polls, however, is not that they might be wrong but that they mask how polarised British voters’ views have become.
Continue reading...from The Guardian https://ift.tt/2PYLP0W
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